QUOTE (Georgie Pin @ Oct 13 2004, 09:45 PM)
Of course it is entirely up to the individual what beliefs they have and what ideas and ideologies they will use to live their lives. I wouldn't have it any other way.
I agree for the most part.
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I am a total sceptic (no really I am :) ) As I am under moderation ( for seemingly months - not complaining!) I obviously have the capacity to be annoying so I'm sorry if I've offended. Glad to speak to me old mate/adversary Passingover again though!
You could look at it as an honor too. For someone wants to be the first to know what you have to say before others do. (half serious here)
You just say the last part so that they will let your post through this time. ;)
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Generally, humans look for patterns.
Agreed.
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Coincidences are usually only regarded as such when isolated from reality. All other factors are ignored.
Do you mean to say this? So you are saying that often people attribute things as coincidence without seeking out any correlations within reality. If so, I agree. There are often correlations, if not causation. Even if hidden or not apparent. It can be seen both ways still, see?
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I work with random 10 digit numbers in my job. It was very easy for me and my collegues to think that the sequence 666 came up more frequently than any other 3 same digits. In fact they don't, you just remember them because of the significance.
That makes sense (significance remembered, insignificance forgotten - confirmation bias) , except for the "In fact, they don't" if you have not really studied the data to determine that. Actually if they were "random", several generators (obviously not truly random) tend to skew to the high side making it more likely that higher numbers would occur more often than lower numbers. Also, even if it was truly random (which is often difficult), it could very well be possible that the generator would spit out 100 "6's" in a row. Statistically it isn't supposed to happen, but there is nothing forbidding it, no?
More about the 4th quote of yours above now.
This is what I have suggested for a while but probably not in the way you intend. There is a problem that it is easy to dismiss everything as a coincidence, over and over again. Then there might come the stage where you rule out coincidence (as a judgement call) and seek out causation or correlation. This is the portion that gets results traditionally. The first is just a reverse belief - asserting that it is nothing but coincidence. This stage would mean going out and seeking explanations, trying to understand.
The examples you give are mild. Many people have seen more. For example, what if someone was to suddenly tell you your birthday right now and here? You might just shrug and say 1 out of 365 (though this would be false odds really) and a good guess as to the year (among other things). But then what if someone were to follow up and talk about what you were wearing (or not wearing) while you read this? You might then start to get a little nervious and seek out explanations. Did this person break into my system and grab data about me you might wonder. Is there a camera on somewhere where he is seeing this you might think. Is a friend of mine playing a joke on me might be another thought.
Being a somewhat logically oriented person you would probably use your creativity and logic to come up with possible causes and explanations and then seek out to invalidate these explanations or find one that fit. Say you were unable to find one yet at this point. Then the same person came out and started tellign you about somethign major that was going to happen next week. Next week came and it happened. You may shrug it off. Perhaps this person actually caused it. Then say they did the same thing but this time about the weather. Now what do you say about coincidence? It is possible that you might still believe it all is nothing but or that there is a rational explanation using current scientific knowledge. But most people would not at this point, I am all but certain and would seek out alternative explanations. If incidently you still would not, you could add things like them telling you things about yourself and events that no one else really knew. Still yet say they went ahead and mapped out the next decade of your life?
See, while what you mention about confirmation bias and selective remembering as well as correlations with realities has value, it is a mistake in my opinion to say that this applies to everything. Of course the example I give above is only theoretical, but perhaps you see the difference between little things and big things? I can tell you that there exist people who at least claim to have undergone such things and experienced them. I truly wonder if you were one of these people, what would your beleifs on it be? What would you say honestly where would such a thing put you if it were to happen tomorrow?
But again I do like seeing things objectively or at least trying to. If something can be truly explained by confirmation bias or selective memory, that is fine. But It does not necessarily mean that it is the truth (because it is possible) nor will it explain everything or even be able to applied everywhere. Anythign else is but an assumption. And still we are left with soem subjectivity it seems.
Sorry for the length of the post. I will have to leave the thread now. I am trying not to take over threads so much (3 replies should be enough). Please feel free to reply though and if I have something to say I will contact you via pm or some other conventional means.